Polymarket draws $2 billion ICE investment as prediction‑market industry expands

Polymarket, a US‑based prediction‑market platform, saw its 2024 US presidential election forecast for Donald Trump rise to about 62 % in October, a level that later matched the election outcome. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at roughly $8 billion and committing to distribute its event‑based data to institutional investors worldwide.

At the same time, the broader prediction‑market sector is gaining public exposure. A new Netflix documentary, “The Prediction Games,” spotlights the rise of betting on everything from sports to elections. Kalshi, another market operator, has threatened the studio with a defamation lawsuit over the trailer, while Robinhood is in preliminary talks to add Crypto.com event contracts to its platform, potentially widening competition among regulated U.S. providers. Citadel Securities announced a strategic crypto investment, underscoring the growing view of digital assets as core financial infrastructure.