Polymarket sees $400,000 bet on Vladimir Putin’s 2026 term end

An anonymous user on the blockchain‑based prediction platform Polymarket placed a $400,000 wager that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not remain in office beyond December 2026. The bet would pay roughly $2.5 million at odds just over 6‑to‑1 if the outcome occurs.

The wager comes amid intensified fighting in Ukraine, with Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure and renewed calls for the recapture of Crimea. Analysts note growing domestic discontent in Russia over the war, forced conscription and shortages, while China’s future support is seen as a pivotal factor.

U.S. regulators are scrutinising such markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a rulemaking process that could bar bets tied to political events or conflicts, and a recent insider‑trading case involving a U.S. soldier betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro highlights enforcement concerns. Forbes argues that, given the war’s strain on the Kremlin and possible shifts in Beijing’s stance, a Putin ouster within the next three years is plausible.