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Polymarket wallets suspected of trading on U.S. military secrets
Research from the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests that over 150 wallets on the prediction market Polymarket may have traded using non-public U.S. military information. The study identified a group of highly successful traders, referred to as 'Orcas,' who achieved an average win rate of 97.2% on military and defense-related markets, collectively earning approximately $8 million.
These findings have raised national security concerns, as such trading could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries. The report follows previous incidents of suspected insider trading, including a U.S. soldier charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, has stated that it maintains strict controls, monitors for suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities. The platform settles trades on a blockchain, making wagers public while allowing traders to remain anonymous.
Entities
Anti-Corruption Data Collective · Donald Trump Jr. · Nicolás Maduro · Polymarket · Reuters · Shayne Coplan
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 4 SOURCES] A group of 152 wallets, dubbed 'Orcas', earned $8 million collectively on military and defense markets. www.al-monitor.com · www.joemygod.com · responsiblestatecraft.org · taskandpurpose.com
- [● 8 SOURCES] More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded using inside U.S. military information. www.al-monitor.com · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · www.it-boltwise.de · de.rt.com · www.joemygod.com · +3 more
- [● 4 SOURCES] Polymarket claims to have strict controls and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities. www.al-monitor.com · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · de.rt.com · lapatilla.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The identified 'Orca' wallets achieved an average win rate of 97.2%. www.al-monitor.com · www.joemygod.com · responsiblestatecraft.org
- [● 5 SOURCES] A U.S. soldier was charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. www.al-monitor.com · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · de.rt.com · lapatilla.com · responsiblestatecraft.org