Polymarket wallets suspected of using military intelligence for $8M in profits

An investigation by the non-profit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests that over 150 wallets on the prediction platform Polymarket may have traded using non-public U.S. military information. The study identified 152 specific wallets that achieved an average success rate of 97.2% on military and defense-related bets, resulting in approximately $8 million in total gains.

The researchers focused on high-risk bets—defined as those involving at least $2,500 with a probability of 35% or less. The ACDC identified a pattern of “orca” wallets: newly created accounts that place rapid, highly successful bets on niche markets before withdrawing funds and disappearing. The report notes that 52% of high-risk bets regarding U.S. military actions were successful, compared to a 14% success rate across all other markets.

Concerns have been raised that these patterns allow large investors and automated bots to replicate insider transactions. The study observed instances where suspicious individual bets were immediately followed by large-scale operations from bots and major investors, such as during military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Experts warn that such activity could compromise military secrets and attract interest from foreign intelligence agencies.