Portugal population revision set to raise retirement age and reshape economic outlook

Portugal’s national statistics office (INE) reported that the resident population hit a new peak of 11.4 million in 2025, driven by a 113 % rise in immigration between 2021 and 2025 to 1.6 million people. The surge will trigger a revision of the country’s mortality tables, which determine life expectancy at age 65 and, consequently, the statutory retirement age – now projected at 66 years and 11 months starting in January.

INE officials said, “A revisão das Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade vai ser assegurada, não sendo ainda possível adiantar em que calendário e para que período,” and added that the date for publishing the updated tables is still under evaluation. The demographic shift is expected to lift aggregate GDP while pulling down GDP per capita, prompting analysts to warn that Portugal could appear poorer in relative terms despite absolute growth. Crime rates remain historically low, with 32 offences per 1,000 inhabitants in 2025, down from previous years. The data also fuels political debate, as immigration has reshaped party dynamics and raised questions about the sustainability of the pension system.