Brazil lifts 2026 inflation forecast to 5.1% above target ceiling

The Ministry of Finance’s Economic Policy Secretariat raised its 2026 inflation projection for the IPCA index from 4.5% to 5.1%, pushing the estimate above the 4.5% ceiling set by the National Monetary Council. The upward revision was driven mainly by higher international oil prices linked to the Middle‑East conflict and by expected price pressures from the El Niño climate phenomenon on food supplies. The same Boletim Macrofiscal released on 15 July kept the 2026 real‑GDP growth forecast at 2.3% and adjusted the 2027 inflation outlook to 3.6% with GDP growth projected at 2.5%. The report also noted sector‑by‑sector expectations, a modest fiscal surplus target for 2026 and the persistence of external uncertainties that could keep inflation elevated in the short term. Multiple media outlets replicated these numbers, confirming the government’s revised outlook for price stability and economic performance in Brazil.