Potential U.S. NATO withdrawal could increase Russian nuclear risk

A potential military retreat by the United States from the NATO alliance could significantly increase the likelihood of Vladimir Putin deploying nuclear weapons in the 21st century. According to Spenser Warren, a nuclear security expert at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, such a deployment could be used to reconquer territories formerly part of the Soviet Union.

Analysts suggest that the Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—are primary targets for potential Russian aggression. These nations joined NATO specifically to prevent a Russian reconquest, but their military capabilities are considered insufficient to deter Russian ground and air power without direct NATO reinforcements.

Warren notes that Putin maintains exclusive authority over Moscow’s nuclear arsenal. The risk of activation is viewed as rising alongside Putin’s stated ambitions to reconstruct a modern version of the Soviet Union, using nuclear intimidation as a core tactic similar to the ongoing campaign in Ukraine.