Prediction markets on California wildfires raise arson concerns

Prediction‑market platforms such as Polymarket and WyldFyre let users trade on outcomes of wildfires, including the size, location and containment date of fires in California. After the deadly 2023 Eaton fire in Altadena, which killed 19 people and destroyed thousands of homes, climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau warned that "It’s not just easy to start a fire — now there’s potentially a financial incentive" and expressed worry that the markets "encourage people to think about these events like they are video games, not real‑world disasters."

Polymarket argues the market provides valuable information during disasters, saying removing it would reduce access to accurate data. Experts, however, caution that the ease of betting on fire outcomes could incentivize arson. Psychologist Lauren Ducat noted a link between obsessive gambling and fire‑setting, and retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s arson investigator Ed Nordskog said many arsonists set fires near casinos they frequent. While data on a direct causal link are limited, officials and observers fear the platforms may influence individuals to start or manipulate fires for profit.