Prediction markets see 380% global growth amid regulatory challenges
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, have experienced global growth of over 380 per cent in less than a year. These platforms allow users to place binary option bets on future events, a practice that some view as a legitimate form of forecasting and others as a dangerous new form of gambling.
In the United States, Gabriel Perez reportedly earned over $143,000 by predicting the content of Donald Trump's speeches while serving as his teleprompter operator. While Perez is no longer in that role, he has not been charged.
In Australia, these prediction market providers are illegal to operate. However, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has noted that using a VPN to bypass geographic restrictions remains legal, allowing users to access these platforms. Despite the risks, economist Professor Justin Wolfers suggests that prediction markets can produce superior forecasts compared to traditional polls or pundits, potentially aiding better decision-making for governments and businesses.
Entities
Australian Communications and Media Authority · Gabriel Perez · Justin Wolfers · Kalshi · Polymarket
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Prediction markets produce better forecasts than polls, pundits, or models. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] Gabriel Perez was Donald Trump's teleprompter operator. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] Prediction market providers are illegal to operate in Australia. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) admits using a VPN to circumvent geo-blockers is legal. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] Prediction markets have grown more than 380 per cent globally in less than a year. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] Gabriel Perez made more than $143,000 by predicting Donald Trump's speech content. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au
- [● 3 SOURCES] Prediction markets grew more than 380 per cent globally in less than a year. www.brisbanetimes.com.au · www.theage.com.au · www.smh.com.au