Professor John Mearsheimer links NATO expansion to Russian actions in Crimea and Odessa

John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, argues that NATO expansion has driven Russian military actions in Ukraine. He suggests that Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 was motivated by the fear that NATO might establish a naval base in Sevastopol, displacing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Mearsheimer posits that Russia views the potential for NATO to establish a naval presence in Odessa as a similar existential threat. He argues that if NATO had not expanded eastward following the collapse of the Soviet Union, there would be no ongoing debate regarding Ukraine joining the alliance, and Ukraine's borders might have remained unchanged since before 2014.

While noting uncertainty regarding the Russian military's current capability to seize Odessa, Mearsheimer asserts that Russia would likely attempt to control the city to prevent NATO naval basing in Southwest Ukraine.