Putin's political future draws $400,000 bet on Polymarket

An anonymous user on the crypto‑prediction market Polymarket placed a $400,000 wager that Russian President Vladimir Putin will no longer be in office by 31 December 2026. The bet, made under the username “ZnotluvuiSamez” and displayed with a Ukrainian flag avatar, is the largest single stake on the question “Will Putin step down from the presidency of Russia by the end of 2026?”. The platform lists a potential payout of up to $2.5 million if the outcome is realized. A secondary bet of $61,000 predicted that Ukraine would retake Crimea by the end of the year, both outcomes assessed by the market at roughly a 12% likelihood. NBC News highlighted the contrast between these bets and broader market sentiment, which still sees only about a 12% chance of Putin losing power before 2030.

Forbes contextualised the wager, noting that Putin faces mounting internal pressures from wartime setbacks, energy shortages, forced conscription and public unrest. The analysis outlines possible scenarios for his removal, ranging from assassination to a legal trial, and points to external factors such as intensified Ukrainian counter‑offensives or a shift in Chinese support. The bet underscores growing speculation about the stability of Russia’s leadership amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.