Putin's War Strategy and Paths to Ending the Russia‑Ukraine Conflict

Analysts note that President Vladimir Putin prefers to let Russia suffer severe internal strain rather than accept defeat in Ukraine. The war has driven the Russian budget into a deficit of more than 1 trillion rubles, sparked soaring inflation and long queues at fuel stations from Moscow to Vologda. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly proposed energy cease‑fires, urging Moscow to stop attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in exchange for a halt to Russian strikes.

In an interview, Russian‑Ukraine expert Konstantin Eggert said the conflict could end in one of three ways: Putin’s death or removal, a decisive military defeat for Russia, or a collapse of the Russian economy and banking system under sanctions. He added, “Két módon érhet véget az orosz‑ukrán háború” (the war can end in two ways). Eggert argued that Moscow’s current aim is the collapse of the Ukrainian state and further territorial gains, and that no genuine negotiations are forthcoming. He also warned that Russia may intensify attacks on its own major cities to pressure the population into demanding an end to the war.