Putin's war trench deepens Russia's economic and social strain

Analysts say President Vladimir Putin has built a “war trench” around Russia’s economy and society as the conflict in Ukraine enters its fifth year. The war effort now underpins employment, regional budgets and the arms industry, which employs millions, creating a network that is difficult to dismantle without triggering severe disruption.

The continued fighting fuels inflation, labor shortages and civil stagnation, while an abrupt end would likely cause massive unemployment, a crisis among veteran soldiers and a possible collapse of the defence sector. As George Gunitsky noted, “stopping it would mean a sudden, concentrated cost: massive job losses, a veteran crisis and a potential collapse of defence industries.”

The analysis warns that any move away from the war could destabilise Russia’s internal order, making the conflict a self‑reinforcing economic and political constraint for Putin’s regime.