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[BUSINESS] · India · 4 sources

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RBI repo rate may need to reach 6.25% to curb inflation, says SBI Funds Management

SBI Funds Management has indicated that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to increase its benchmark repo rate to at least 6.25% to effectively manage persistent inflation risks. This assessment suggests a potential total increase of 75 basis points from the current level, following a recent 25 basis point hike that brought the rate to 5.50%.

The recommendation follows a rise in India's inflation metrics. Retail inflation climbed to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, while wholesale inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 9.92%. SBI Funds Management noted that a 6.25% rate would be necessary to maintain a real interest rate of approximately 1%.

Looking ahead, the fund house warned that factors such as elevated crude oil prices, food inflation, and strong domestic demand could cause inflation to exceed the RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit for two consecutive quarters. Consequently, the near-term outlook for policy rates is expected to be limited to either rate hikes or holding current levels, with rate cuts considered unlikely.

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India · Reserve Bank of India · SBI Funds Management

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