BHP and Commonwealth Bank face divergent ASX forecasts

Regal Partners anticipates a significant divergence between two of the Australian Securities Exchange’s (ASX) largest companies over the next five years. The investment firm expects BHP Group’s shares to surge, potentially reaching $100 per share, driven by robust copper demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and semiconductor needs. BHP currently stands as the ASX’s most valuable company.

In contrast, Regal Partners forecasts a decline for Commonwealth Bank (CBA), suggesting its shares could also drop toward the $100 mark. The firm cites vulnerabilities in the Australian banking sector, including potential stresses from the private credit sector, rising arrears, and bad debts related to the building and construction industry.

Separately, Erste Group Bank has adjusted its financial outlook for BHP, lowering its FY2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $5.02 from a previous forecast of $5.10. While BHP remains a major focus for commodity-driven investing, analysts have provided mixed ratings, with several firms recently moving the stock to a ‘hold’ status.