Research reveals public overestimates prevalence of conspiracy theories

Research conducted by the Center for Social and Psychological Sciences of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam has revealed that individuals significantly overestimate the prevalence of conspiracy theories among their peers. In a study involving 2,906 participants from the United States and the United Kingdom, people estimated that 40 to 42 percent of the population believed in conspiracy theories, whereas the actual figure was between 33 and 34 percent.

The study highlights the impact of descriptive social norms—the perception of how common certain views are—on individual beliefs. Researchers found that when people believe a large portion of society holds a certain view, they are more likely to assume there is some truth to it.

Crucially, the study noted that providing specific percentage data can reduce a person's susceptibility to conspiracy theories, whereas vague statements like ‘not many people believe this’ are ineffective. Psychological factors such as the need for certainty, control, and a sense of exclusivity also contribute to why individuals adopt these narratives, which often offer a perceived sense of order in a complex world.