Australia's June job surge bolsters RBA rate‑hike expectations

Australian labour market data for June 2026 showed employment rise by 76,300 jobs – the strongest monthly increase since April 2025 – with part‑time positions accounting for 47,000 of the gain. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% while the participation rate climbed to a one‑year high of 67.0%. The surprise strength of hiring pushed the Australian dollar up 0.3% to US$0.7020 and lifted three‑year government‑bond yields, while market odds of an additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in August rose to roughly 28%.

The RBA has already tightened three times this year to a cash rate of 4.35% as consumer inflation ran at 4% in May and core inflation at 3.6%, above its 2‑3% target band. Higher oil prices linked to renewed Middle‑East tensions remain a key inflation driver. A separate RBA survey found inflation to be the top economic concern for two‑thirds of respondents, with public trust in the central bank remaining stable.

State‑level data showed Victoria’s unemployment rate at 5.1%, above the national 4.4%, highlighting regional labour‑market disparities. In corporate news, Macquarie Group announced the retirement of CEO Shemara Wikramanayake, with Greg Ward named as her successor. The ASX 200 index briefly rallied on the jobs news before trimming gains later in the session.