Retailers face shifting consumer patterns and planning cycles

Retailers are navigating increasingly unpredictable consumer behavior and planning cycles. According to The Golden Guide 2026, traditional seasonal peaks are becoming less predictable as customer demand shifts across different sectors. While some industries like footwear align with back-to-school periods, others face fluctuations driven by weather or promotional events, leading to what experts describe as a “never-ending peak cycle of planning.”

Data from BRC-KPMG highlights how weather impacts demand, noting a 3 per cent year-on-year fall in total retail sales in April followed by a 3.7 per cent jump in May due to warmer weather. Furthermore, research from Cardlytics indicates the emergence of a “controlled consumer” who prioritizes price, convenience, and quality. This shift is evidenced by a 6.09 per cent rise in nonessential retail transactions during the first half of the year, even as average basket values fell by 4.15 per cent.