Riksbanken interest rate outlook and mortgage impacts

The Swedish central bank, Riksbanken, has maintained its policy rate at 1.75 percent. While the rate has remained unchanged since October 2025, economic forecasts suggest potential shifts. SBAB predicts that the Riksbanken may implement three consecutive rate hikes, starting in December, which could increase variable mortgage rates by approximately 75 basis points.

Market data from August 2026 indicates that average interest rates for new variable mortgages stood at 2.73 percent, a decrease from 2.86 percent in August 2025. Fixed-rate mortgages for one to three years averaged 3.15 percent, while three to five-year fixed rates averaged 3.35 percent.

Global economic factors, including rising ten-year Treasury yields in the United States, are also being monitored for their potential impact on Swedish households and the cost of fixed-rate mortgages.