Rocket Lab stock sinks as prediction markets turn bearish

Prediction‑market contracts on Polymarket show investors pricing a steep decline for Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), with an 88% implied probability of the share reaching $64 and a 64.5% chance of it falling to $60. The market assigns only about 5% odds to any recovery above $100. The stock has fallen roughly 35.6% over the past month and 18.4% in the last week.

Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish, maintaining a consensus price target of $116.57, which suggests more than 70% upside from current levels. At the same time, a valuation analysis of Rocket Lab’s recent Iridium acquisition notes that, once the merger is factored in, the company's EV/S multiple would be lower than its current 57×, implying a cheaper valuation after integration.

Both the bearish sentiment in prediction markets and the optimistic analyst outlook highlight a divergence of views on Rocket Lab’s near‑term performance and longer‑term valuation prospects.