Romania economic outlook: Leu depreciation and inflation forecasts

Financial analysts from CFA Romania and economic experts are projecting a period of economic transition for Romania. While inflation is expected to decrease—with forecasts placing the rate at approximately 5.77% by October 2027—the national currency, the leu, is anticipated to depreciate against the euro. Analysts suggest the exchange rate could reach 5.39 lei per euro within the next 12 months.

Economic growth for 2026 is projected to be minimal, estimated at around 0.1%, raising concerns about potential stagnation or recession. The state budget deficit is forecasted at 5.5% of GDP, and public debt is expected to rise to 62% of GDP over the next year. In the real estate sector, nearly half of the analysts expect urban residential property prices to remain stagnant, with many viewing current prices as overvalued.

Additionally, the Foreign Investors Council (FIC) has called for a national project to accelerate Romania's adoption of the euro. This proposal urges the Government and the National Bank of Romania (BNR) to collaborate on a 12-month roadmap focused on fiscal consolidation, inflation reduction, and structural convergence to improve macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.