Romania and Moldova face economic slowdown and consumption declines

Economic outlooks for Romania and Moldova indicate significant challenges. In Romania, the World Bank forecasts a 0.5% GDP contraction in 2026 due to fiscal adjustments and high energy costs, though a recovery is expected by 2027. This downturn is reflected in consumer behavior, where retail sales fell by 5% in the first eight months of 2026. Significant declines have been noted in non-food products, food, and fuel. The automotive sector is particularly strained, with the Dacia factory in Mioveni facing temporary closures and voluntary departure programs due to low demand.

Additionally, Romania has seen a 72.3% drop in low-value parcels (under 150 euros) from outside the EU since March 2026, a trend accelerated by new European customs taxes. This has led to a sharp decrease in related state tax revenues.

In Moldova, economic growth is projected to be modest, potentially reaching only 1-2% in 2026. Experts note that while domestic trade and industrial production have provided some support, slowing exports and rising financing costs are acting as drags. Inflationary pressures remain a concern, with estimates suggesting inflation could rise to 9-10%. Meanwhile, trade between Moldova and Turkey has grown by 12.8% in the first half of 2026, reaching $638.7 million.