Romania's 2026 inflation forecast rises to 7.9% amid Middle East tensions

The Romanian National Strategy and Forecast Committee raised its average annual inflation estimate for 2026 to 7.9%, up 1.4 percentage points from its autumn projection. The upward revision reflects higher energy and fuel prices and broader price pressures caused by the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. The forecast also shows a 1.7‑point increase for year‑end consumer price inflation, now expected at 5.3%, and notes that the disinflation trend should resume in the third quarter of 2026 after temporary statistical adjustments.

Euroconstruct’s June 2026 outlook for the European construction sector, which includes Romania, projects a slower but continued recovery. New construction and infrastructure investments are expected to become the primary market drivers through 2028, with overall construction output growth revised down to about 2% for 2026, lower than the previously forecast 2.4%. The sector’s performance is also affected by the same Middle East geopolitical tensions, which have heightened energy costs and inflationary pressures across Europe.