Romania's macro confidence index hits historic low as recession looms

The CFA Romania association reported that its macroeconomic confidence index fell to 30.5 points in May, the lowest level since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic in 2020. The index’s components also dropped sharply, with the current‑situation score falling to 23.4 and the 12‑month outlook to 34.

Analysts cited heightened external and internal risks, a weakening leu against the euro and persistent high inflation—forecast above 7% for the next year. They expect the leu to trade around 5.35 lei per euro, a modest GDP contraction of 0.1‑1%, and a budget deficit that will keep inflationary pressures high, describing the situation as stagflation.