Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in 2026 presidential polls

Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a highly polarized and competitive landscape between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

According to PoderData/Aya, the two candidates are in a technical tie for a potential second-round runoff, with Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 44%. In the first-round projections, Lula leads with 38% against Bolsonaro's 35%. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, trail significantly with approximately 4% each.

Regional polling shows varying trends. In Roraima, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 52% to Lula's 17%. In Espírito Santo, Bolsonaro holds a 37% lead over Lula's 30%. In Paraná, Bolsonaro leads the first round with 44% and is projected to win a second-round matchup against Lula with 52%.

Lula has officially launched his campaign, emphasizing economic growth, education, and national sovereignty, specifically regarding the control of rare earth minerals. Meanwhile, political observers note increasing mobilization from opposition groups and business interests aligned with Bolsonaro.