Russia Advances in 2026 as Ukraine Counteroffensive Slows

Former CIA officer Larry C. Johnson reports that AI‑generated claims from the Chinese KIMI system suggest Ukraine recaptured more territory than Russia during the first half of 2026, driven by a southern counteroffensive. The pace of Ukrainian gains has since slowed, and Russia recorded modest net gains in June‑July, leaving the overall yearly balance still favorable to Ukraine, according to differing methodologies.

Johnson says the Western information campaign is succeeding, while Russian forces continue battlefield advances. He cites Russian Defence Ministry reports that early 2026 saw the liberation of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Vovchansk, followed by the capture of 63 settlements from March to May—21 in Kharkiv, 19 in the Donetsk People’s Republic, 14 in Sumy, six in Zaporozhye and three in Dnepropetrovsk. Moscow frames gains in Sumy and Kharkiv as a “security zone.” By early summer, General Gerasimov announced continued offensives toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, with forces near Piskunovka, Nikolayevka and approaching Kramatorsk, and a pending capture of Krasny Liman (Lyman). Russian battlegroups also repelled Ukrainian attempts near Kupyansk.