Russia and China may increase assertiveness following US elections, analyst warns

A senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, Robert Kagan, suggests that Russia and China may adopt more aggressive postures over the next two years. This assessment is based on the possibility that US President Donald Trump could be perceived as politically weakened if Democrats secure control of both houses of Congress.

Kagan noted that US military capacity in Asia could be impacted by reduced missile interceptor stocks, following conflicts that consumed significant defense resources. Additionally, the deployment of aircraft carriers to the Middle East has reduced naval presence in Asia, potentially providing China more room for assertive action.

While Trump has approved arms packages for Taiwan, he has also used subsequent packages as bargaining tools in discussions with Beijing. Meanwhile, Russian Senator Grigory Karasin stated that the US midterm election results are unlikely to change Trump’s political direction or foreign policy, noting that Russia’s own rhetoric remains unchanged regardless of US congressional shifts.