Russia could use limited incursions in Narva to test NATO unity

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has outlined a hypothetical scenario involving a limited Russian seizure of Narva, Estonia. While a full-scale invasion of a NATO member is considered unlikely while Russia is committed to Ukraine, the analysis suggests Russia could conduct limited land operations or drone strikes to fracture alliance unity and test the activation of NATO's Article 5.

Security experts warn that Russia is evolving its drone warfare into a multi-layered system that integrates intelligence, logistics disruption, and air defense attrition. This model, which includes the creation of dedicated unmanned systems branches within the Russian military, poses a significant hybrid threat to Estonia and other neighboring states. Experts emphasize that NATO must improve its drone defense capabilities and maintain strategic clarity to deter such provocations, as ambiguity may encourage further Russian risk-taking.