Russia cuts 2026 oil production forecast to 17-year low

The Russian government has revised its oil production forecasts downward due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to draft government estimates, crude oil production in 2026 is expected to fall to 494.2 million tons, or approximately 9.88 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since 2009.

While production is projected to rise to 500 million tons in 2027, this figure remains 16 million tons below previous forecasts. Although output may increase in 2028 and 2029, it is expected to remain below 2025 levels. The decline is attributed to export restrictions and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which have reduced fuel production and caused domestic gasoline shortages.

To mitigate domestic supply issues, Russia has implemented bans on diesel exports and maintained restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel. However, the reduction in fuel production is expected to drive an increase in crude oil exports, potentially reaching 244.7 million tons in 2026. These estimates are expected to be finalized in late September for use in budget preparations.