Russia cuts 2026/27 wheat export forecast as Azov Sea restrictions bite

The Russian analytics firm SovEcon lowered its 2026/27 wheat export forecast by 1.9 million tonnes, to 44.6 million tonnes, citing maritime restrictions in the Sea of Azov for the first time this season. The total grain export outlook was also trimmed from 56.1 to 53.8 million tonnes, with barley exports cut by 0.2 million tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes and corn exports raised by 0.2 million tonnes to 3.6 million tonnes due to higher demand from Iran via the Caspian route.

Andrey Sizov, director of SovEcon, described the situation as a logistical shock rather than a production shortfall, warning that continued Azov restrictions could keep more grain in Russia’s domestic market, pushing up local prices while supporting world market prices. He added that a reopening of the Azov maritime route could quickly restore export volumes to normal levels. Reduced demand from key importers like Egypt and Turkey, whose own harvests are underway, also limits immediate export needs.