Russia expands military strength and shifts strategy in Ukraine conflict

Russia is significantly expanding its military strength and shifting its strategic approach in the conflict with Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has signed an order to add 15,500 active personnel, bringing the total number of active soldiers to 1,550,500. This marks the seventh such expansion since the invasion began. To fund this growth, Russian defense spending could rise to 17.1 trillion rubles (approximately 207 billion euros), potentially consuming 35% of total federal expenditures.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that because ground offensives have stalled, Moscow is pursuing a new strategy to force a Ukrainian capitulation before spring 2027. This involves massive investments in long-range capabilities, including jet-powered drone swarms and ballistic missiles, with reports suggesting a $12 billion investment in drone production.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have seen tactical successes through deception. Under ‘Operation Vivaldi,’ Ukrainian units used feints to reclaim 51 square kilometers near Lyman, including the villages of Nove, Ridkodub, and Katerynivka. Ukrainian commanders reported that these maneuvers led to the surrender of entire Russian units, including officers and specialists.