Russia lowers wheat harvest and export forecasts

IKAR has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2026 grain harvest to 137 million tonnes, down from 138 million tonnes. Consequently, the wheat export outlook has been cut to 52.8 million tonnes from 55 million tonnes. Specifically, the wheat harvest estimate was lowered to 88 million tonnes, with export potential reduced to 42 million tonnes.

In the Black Sea region, wheat export prices rose recently due to a firmer market. However, shipments from the Azov-Black Sea basin have faced significant disruptions due to ongoing conflict and attacks on infrastructure, leading many shipments to be redirected to Baltic terminals. While IKAR raised its October wheat export forecast to 3 million tons, SovEcon predicts a lower figure of 2.5 million tons, noting that Black Sea loading has reached a standstill.

From July to September 2026, Russian wheat exports totaled 7 million tons, a decrease from the 11.3 million tons recorded during the same period last year.