Russia maintains controlled competition with Turkey in Syria

Russia is maintaining a stance of ‘controlled competition’ regarding Turkish interests in Syria. While Moscow avoids full support for Ankara’s expansionist goals, it maintains communication channels to prevent direct conflict with Israel. Recently, the Israeli Air Force conducted strikes near the Turkish border and in Damascus; Russian radar systems did not intervene, leaving Turkish forces vulnerable.

This strategic positioning by Moscow is viewed as a response to Turkish actions, including the closure of the Bosphorus Straits and the transfer of Turkish munitions to Ukraine. In Syria, Russia is transitioning its relationship with the new transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, moving from absolute protector to a partner. A recent memorandum of cooperation has converted Russian military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus into joint Russian-Syrian facilities under increased Syrian control.

Separately, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has criticized Israel’s ‘aggressive policy’ during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. He stated that the entire region is paying the price for these actions, citing high casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. Erdoğan also highlighted Turkey’s role in the Mecca Defense Alliance, alongside Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, as a means to promote regional stability and collective deterrence.