Russia oil and gas tax revenue projected to reach $12 billion in October

Russian federal budget revenue from oil and gas taxes is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year in October, reaching approximately 1 trillion roubles ($11.97 billion). This sector accounts for roughly one-fifth of the country's total government income.

October revenues are expected to be more than double those of September, primarily due to quarterly payments of an additional profit-based tax on oil production. Even when excluding this specific tax, October revenue is estimated to exceed September levels by about 164 billion roubles, or 36%.

While rising global oil prices—driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East—provide a boost, the impact may be partially offset by an estimated 5% decline in production during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. For the 2026 budget, Russia anticipates oil and gas revenues of 8.918 trillion roubles out of a total revenue of 40.283 trillion roubles.