Russia oil production forecasts cut amid refinery disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for Russian oil production for the second consecutive month, citing the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure. The IEA reduced its 2026 crude production forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd and its 2027 forecast by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd.

Concurrently, reports from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicate that Russia imported a record 172,000 tonnes of oil products in August, with India providing 70 percent of these imports. This surge in imports, including 120,000 tonnes of gasoline, follows disruptions to Russia’s domestic refining capacity caused by drone attacks.

Notably, much of the gasoline imported from India was refined at the Vadinar refinery, which is partly owned by the Russian company Rosneft. This has resulted in a cycle where Russia pays a refinery it partially owns to process its own crude into fuel that it can no longer produce domestically due to infrastructure damage.