Russia oil production projected to hit lowest level since 2009

Russian oil production is projected to fall to 494 million tonnes in 2026, marking its lowest level since 2009. This represents a 3.4% decrease compared to 2025 levels, according to forecasts from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development.

Officials have attributed the decline to “unplanned maintenance work in refineries.” However, analysts point to significant pressure on energy infrastructure caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Since the beginning of September, seven refineries have been forced to halt production, including Rosneft’s Kuibyshev refinery, the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the Rostov region, and a Gazprom-owned facility in Moscow.

In response to the damage, the Russian government implemented a temporary ban on diesel exports to protect domestic supplies. While this measure is set to expire on September 30, reports suggest the Kremlin may extend the ban to ensure producers can meet internal market demands.