Russia reduces natural gas production and export forecasts

The Russian Ministry of Economy has revised its forecasts downward for natural gas production and exports, according to a draft government document. This adjustment comes as the European Union prepares to end its purchases of Russian gas starting next year.

Natural gas production in Russia is projected to reach 683.1 billion cubic meters this year, a decrease of 5.3 billion cubic meters compared to May projections. While this remains higher than the 662.7 billion cubic meters produced in 2025, the downward revision reflects the breakdown of economic and political ties with the West due to the war in Ukraine.

Regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), maritime exports are expected to rise to 35 million tons this year, up from 30.3 million tons in 2025, though this figure is 5.3 million tons lower than previous estimates. The document suggests that while LNG exports will continue to grow, the pace will be slower than previously anticipated.

Additionally, Russia has lowered its oil production forecasts for 2026 to the lowest levels seen in 17 years. The Kremlin has maintained that Europe is harming itself by purchasing expensive spot market gas rather than utilizing cheaper Russian supplies, asserting readiness to resume supplies through remaining intact Nord Stream pipelines.