Russia shifts wheat exports to Baltic Sea ports

Russia is increasingly redirecting its wheat exports toward Baltic Sea ports due to constraints on southern export routes. This shift has led several analysis firms, including IKAR, SovEcon, and Rusagrotrans, to upwardly revise their September export forecasts. IKAR now estimates Russian wheat exports for September will reach approximately 2.3 million tonnes, up from previous estimates of just over 2 million tonnes.

As grain volumes move north, terminals in the Baltic Sea—some originally intended for coal and fertilizer—are being utilized for grain shipments. Despite the increased volume through these routes, prices for Russian export wheat have seen slight declines, following broader trends in the international wheat market. For example, wheat with a 12.5 percent protein content was priced at 267 US dollars per tonne FOB at the Vysotsk and Ust-Luga ports for November delivery.

Simultaneously, global wheat markets have experienced easing prices amid discussions regarding the potential restoration of grain shipments through the Black Sea. While no substantive agreement has been reached, traders are reacting to diplomatic efforts involving countries such as Turkey, India, and Egypt. Analysis suggests that up to 80 percent of Russian grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov could restart relatively quickly if attacks on shipping cease.