Russia-Ukraine war: Analysis of the ‘escalation trap’ theory

Professor Robert Pape has proposed that Vladimir Putin is caught in an ‘escalation trap’ following the invasion of Ukraine. According to Pape, Russia launched a preventive war in February 2022 with the intent to seize Kyiv and approximately 60 percent of Ukrainian territory. The failure of this initial plan has reportedly forced a fallback strategy aimed at breaking NATO, which is instead resulting in a strengthened European counterbalancing coalition.

However, analysis of military data suggests the initial Russian objective may have been coercion rather than full-scale occupation. Critics note that the troop numbers deployed—between 150,000 and 190,000—were insufficient for occupying a large portion of a population of 40 million, which would typically require several hundred thousand troops. Furthermore, the lack of an attempt to encircle Kyiv suggests the military pressure was directed at the Ukrainian government to force negotiations, rather than a mission to occupy the capital block by block.