Russia-Ukraine war scenarios revealed in alleged Sberbank leak

A leaked note allegedly from Russia’s Sberbank, released by the Black Mirror hacking group, outlines eight potential scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine. The document, which some sources suggest may have been generated by artificial intelligence, identifies a ‘Trump agreement’ as the most likely outcome with a 32% probability. This scenario involves freezing the conflict without a formal peace treaty, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and lifting certain sanctions against Russia, while the U.S. would accept Russian control over four annexed regions despite the EU not recognizing border changes.

Other scenarios mentioned include a Korean-style frozen conflict, a prolonged war, or a Russian victory. Conversely, a peace settlement on terms acceptable to Ukraine and Europe, or a direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO, are viewed as least likely.

Separately, military analysts warn that Russia may not enter serious negotiations until the Donbas region is fully captured. Experts suggest Russia could potentially seize Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by early 2027, though such an offensive would likely require significant mobilization and result in heavy casualties. Current estimates suggest Russia has already suffered approximately 1.4 million soldiers lost to killed or wounded.