Russian Central Bank maintains key interest rate at 14%

The Russian central bank has decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 14.0%, marking the second time in less than two months that the rate has remained on hold. The decision follows a series of rate cuts that occurred between June 2025 and September 2025.

In its latest assessment, the central bank noted that “current price pressures remain elevated” and that inflation expectations stay high. The bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to a range of 7.1% to 7.6%, up from a previous estimate of 6% to 7%. While the bank targets a 4% inflation rate, it does not expect to reach this goal until 2027, with projected average rates for that year sitting between 12.5% and 13.5%.

Several factors are contributing to the inflationary environment, including utility fee hikes and the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. These attacks have caused temporary reductions in production capacity, leading to fuel price spikes; since the start of 2026, petrol prices have risen by 21% and diesel by 13.4%. The central bank described these disruptions as “one-off factors” that are affecting overall price dynamics.