Russian oil freight costs to India surge amid Black Sea attacks

Freight rates for Russia's flagship Urals crude shipments from western ports to India have risen about 50% since mid‑July as Ukrainian attacks on tankers in the Black Sea heightened security risks. Shipowners are avoiding Russian ports, with the cost of an Aframax cargo from Primorsk to India climbing to roughly $13 million from $8‑9 million, and Suezmax rates from Novorossiysk to India increasing to about $15 million from $10 million. Traders warn the higher transport costs could shave $5 per barrel off Russia's export revenues.

Despite the logistics squeeze, Russia plans to lift oil exports from its western ports in August by roughly 4% to around 2.7 million barrels per day, driven by drone attacks on domestic refineries that leave more crude available for export and strong demand in Asia, especially from India and China. Export volumes may still be capped by a shortage of available tonnage and ongoing strikes at the ports.