Russian oil prices exceed Kremlin budget expectations by 60%

The ruble-based price of Russian oil used for tax calculations has exceeded the levels set in the federal budget by approximately 60% this month. During the first three weeks of October, the revenue price of crude oil averaged approximately 8,699 rubles (103.4 dollars) per barrel, an 11% increase compared to September.

If current oil prices and the ruble exchange rate remain stable through the end of the month, the tax calculation price for October is projected to be 8,387 rubles (100.2 dollars) per barrel. This would represent the highest value since March 2022. The Russian government’s budget was based on an oil price of 59 dollars per barrel and an exchange rate of 92.2 rubles per dollar, resulting in a base value of 5,440 rubles per barrel.

These higher revenues provide support for state finances amid rising costs. However, Russia still anticipates a budget deficit of 3% of GDP in 2026, which is nearly double the initial target. While the government increased taxes to fund operations in Ukraine, the deficit for the January–August period has already reached 2.5% of GDP.