Russian refinery strikes pose risks to global food and energy security

Escalation in the Ukraine war, specifically potential strikes on Russian oil refineries, poses significant risks to global food and energy security. Targeting these facilities aims to cripple Russian military logistics and the national economy, but such actions could trigger a catastrophic disruption in food production and distribution.

Potential consequences include a spike in global oil prices, with projections suggesting oil could reach $200 a barrel and diesel could exceed $10 by 2028. Such energy shortages would impact agriculture, specifically the harvesting and transport of grain. This could lead to a termination of Russian grain exports, heightening the risk of famine in regions heavily dependent on these supplies, such as the Middle East and Iran. Furthermore, these disruptions could drive global inflation and expand the scope of the conflict toward the European Union.