Russia's Economy Faces Stagnation in 2026 Amid Low Investment and High Interest Rates

VTB CEO Andrei Kostin warned that Russia’s growth in 2026 could hover between 0% and 0.5%, citing a 14.3% drop in fixed‑capital investment in the first quarter and a central‑bank key rate of about 14.5% that he expects to ease to roughly 11%‑12% as inflation eases. He called inflation “the biggest enemy of any economy” and noted rising interest from Chinese and Gulf investors in Russian assets, while the privatization of seized assets remains hampered by high price demands.

At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Rosneft chief Igor Secin said the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz gave U.S. energy firms an “unfair advantage” and highlighted that Russia’s oil and gas revenues jumped 32.4% in May to 678.9 billion rubles (about $9.3 billion). He forecast that Brent could fall to $95‑96 per barrel if the strait reopens, later sliding toward $80‑85 within a year, and warned that other chokepoints such as Malacca and Bab el‑Mandeb could face similar disruptions.