Russia's Military Strains Spur Nuclear Brinkmanship Amid Ukraine Conflict

Russia’s war effort is increasingly hampered by severe manpower shortages and heavy battlefield losses. Domestic recruitment campaigns are faltering, and Ukrainian drone strikes are disrupting Russian troop movements and supply lines, limiting advances in regions such as Sumy, Kharkiv and Pokrovsk. The Kremlin is reportedly considering temporary restrictions on diesel and jet fuel exports after repeated attacks on its oil refineries.

Amid these setbacks, President Vladimir Putin has escalated nuclear brinkmanship. After announcing a test launch of the Sarmat (RS‑28) intercontinental missile on May 12, Russia staged a tactical nuclear exercise in Belarus, deploying warheads on Iskander missiles. Western reactions have been muted, but analysts warn the heightened rhetoric raises the risk of miscalculation as NATO prepares for its July summit and Ukraine continues its counter‑offensive.