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[INTERNATIONAL] · Russia, Ukraine, United States, China, India · 4 sources

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Russia's nuclear deterrence weakening as Western aid to Ukraine increases

nuclear deterrence Russia-Ukraine war Kaliningrad NATO military aid hybrid warfare

Analysis from the Financial Times suggests that Russia's nuclear deterrence is losing its effectiveness. As Moscow frequently issues nuclear warnings, Western allies have become less deterred, leading to an increase in military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, fighter jets, and long-range missiles.

Vladimir Putin recently reinforced these threats, stating on October 1 that Russia would use 'all weapons' to defend the Kaliningrad enclave in the event of an attack. However, the impact of such rhetoric has diminished compared to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Several factors contribute to this weakening deterrence, including the strong international taboo against nuclear use and warnings from China and India. Additionally, the 2025 Ukrainian 'Operation Web'—which involved drone strikes on Russian strategic bombers without triggering a nuclear response—has set a significant precedent. As nuclear threats lose their weight, experts warn that the risk of conventional conflict or hybrid warfare, such as sabotage and airspace violations, may increase.

Entities

Financial Times · Institute for the Study of War · NATO · Russia · Ukraine · Vladimir Putin

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The Kremlin is turning to hybrid tactics, including sabotage and airspace violations, as its nuclear deterrence weakens. www.novinky.cz
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2025 Ukrainian operation 'Web', involving drone strikes on Russian strategic bombers, served as a precedent where nuclear retaliation did not occur. www.novinky.cz
  • [● 3 SOURCES] Both China and India have warned Russia against the use of nuclear weapons. ruse.news · www.standartnews.com · www.novinky.cz
  • [● 3 SOURCES] Russia's nuclear deterrence is losing its effectiveness as Western allies increase military support for Kyiv. ruse.news · www.standartnews.com · www.novinky.cz
  • [● 3 SOURCES] Vladimir Putin stated on October 1 that Russia would use all available weapons to defend the Kaliningrad enclave if attacked. ruse.news · www.standartnews.com · www.novinky.cz

Sources

FT: Ядрените заплахи на Русия губят възпиращия си ефект [ruse.news]
Ukrajinu i pre svega Kijev očekuje teška zima posle iznenađujuće ofanzive pomoću robotskih sistema [www.telegraf.rs]
ФТ: Ядрените заплахи на Русия вече не плашат НАТО и това е опасно - Свят — Новини Стандарт [www.standartnews.com]
Putinovy jaderné hrozby už nemají na NATO účinek, píše Financial Times [www.novinky.cz]