Russia's Potential Escalation in Ukraine Raises New Threats

Analysts report that the Kremlin is weighing new forms of escalation in the fifth year of its full‑scale war against Ukraine. Russia has already crossed numerous military and humanitarian thresholds, including attacks on civilians, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, strikes on energy infrastructure during winter, the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the discovery of mass graves in Bucha.

Possible next steps could involve a larger mobilization of ground forces, intensified attacks on civilian targets, broader strikes on critical infrastructure and scorched‑earth tactics along the front line. The analysis also highlights a “horizontal escalation” strategy, whereby Russia might draw in allies such as North Korea or Belarus, and could attempt limited attacks on NATO members to exploit perceived divisions within the alliance.