Russia's Shrinking Budget Limits War Effort Against Ukraine

Russia's 2025 state budget was €470 billion, with 53 % earmarked for the military. Projections suggest the 2026 budget will shrink further, tightening resources for the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

U.S. arms sales continue, partly through EU procurement channels, while SpaceX’s private Starlink service ceased providing connectivity to Russian troops in February. Ukrainian sources say this contributed to a shift in the kill ratio from roughly 5:1 in Russia's favor to about 13:1 favoring Ukraine. Analysts note that Ukraine, with about one‑quarter of Russia's population and lower per‑capita wealth, would need a resource ratio exceeding 3:1 to offset Russia's numerical advantage.

The broader context includes fluctuating oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, which have impacted both economies. The analysis underscores that a war of attrition hinges on the productivity and availability of each side's resources.