Saarland University study identifies immigration concerns as key driver for AfD support

Sociologists from Saarland University have conducted an analysis of tens of thousands of data points to determine the primary drivers behind the electoral success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. By evaluating data from the German Socio-Economic Panel spanning from 2014 to 2024, researchers Martin Schröder, Moritz Rehm, and Anja Röcke challenged common political explanations for the party's rise.

The study suggests that traditional explanations, such as social disadvantage, economic insecurity, or a feeling of being left behind, do not fully account for the party's support. Instead, the researchers found that concerns regarding immigration are a significantly more powerful predictor of AfD voting tendencies. Professor Martin Schröder noted that immigration concerns explain voter inclination up to ten times more strongly than economic factors like feeling socially marginalized, describing the clarity of the results as “astonishing.”